UK households have been given a fresh warning after the latest Martin Lewis energy bills update suggested that some fixed tariffs are now cheaper than the current Ofgem price cap.
While bills fell in April, experts expect the July price cap to rise sharply, potentially adding hundreds of pounds a year to household costs.
Key points to know:
- The current energy price cap is £1,641 a year for a typical household.
- Forecasts suggest it could rise to around £1,925 from July.
- A small number of fixed deals are now available below or close to the current cap.
- Martin Lewis says households on standard variable tariffs should compare deals quickly.
- Whether to fix depends largely on how much certainty a household wants.
For many households, this may be the best chance to avoid a bigger rise later in the year.
Why Is the Martin Lewis Energy Bills Update Getting So Much Attention?
The latest update has gained widespread attention because it comes at a crucial time for household finances.
The Ofgem price cap fell by 6.7% on 1 April 2026, lowering the average annual bill to £1,641. However, analysts now expect prices to rise again from July due to increasing wholesale costs.
Martin Lewis highlighted a key opportunity, noting that some fixed energy deals have dropped below the current cap following recent global developments.
Why it matters now:
- Fixed deals may be cheaper than the current cap
- Prices are expected to rise again in July
- Energy markets remain highly volatile
As Martin Lewis said:
“If you’re on the Cap and want to avoid the big hike in July, this does that.”
With suppliers already changing deals, acting early could help households avoid higher energy costs in the coming months.
What Is Happening to the Ofgem Energy Price Cap from April to July?
The April reduction brought welcome relief after months of high energy costs. Yet the current lower cap only lasts until 30 June. The next Ofgem review is due in July, and most forecasts now point towards a steep increase.
| Period | Average Annual Bill | Change |
| January to March 2026 | £1,758 | +0.2% |
| April to June 2026 | £1,641 | -6.7% |
| July to September 2026 (forecast) | £1,925 | +17.3% |
| October to December 2026 (forecast) | £2,007 | +4.3% |
The expected July rise of around £284 would largely wipe out the savings households enjoyed in April.
Simon, Head of Pricing at British Gas, recently explained:
“Energy prices are expected to remain the same until the end of June, but they may rise from the first of July if wholesale markets keep climbing.”
This matters because wholesale costs account for roughly half of a household energy bill. When international gas prices rise, suppliers usually pass those costs on to consumers a few months later.
What Does the Energy Price Cap Actually Mean?
Despite its name, the energy price cap does not limit the total amount a household can pay. Instead, it sets the maximum unit price and standing charge suppliers can charge customers on standard variable tariffs.
The more energy a household uses, the more it still pays.
For a typical household paying by Direct Debit, the current cap is based on:
- 2,700 kWh of electricity per year
- 11,500 kWh of gas per year
Households using more than this will pay more than £1,641 annually, while lower users will pay less.
The cap only applies to customers on standard variable tariffs. Anyone already on a fixed tariff is protected from price cap changes until their deal ends.
Why Have Some Fixed Energy Tariffs Dropped Below the Current Cap?
This is where the latest Martin Lewis energy bills update becomes more significant. Usually, fixed tariffs cost more than the current price cap because suppliers build in a safety margin.
However, the recent pause in Middle East tensions briefly lowered wholesale market expectations, allowing some suppliers to release cheaper fixed deals.
Martin Lewis described this as a rare opportunity. A few suppliers have offered tariffs slightly below the April cap, although most are only available for a short period and may disappear quickly.
| Supplier and Tariff | Typical Cost Compared With Current Cap | Exit Fees |
| Outfox Energy Fix’d Dual Apr26 12M | 1.6% less | £75 per fuel |
| E.on Next Fixed 15m v21 | 0.1% less | £50 per fuel |
| Fuse Energy April 2026 Fixed | 0.2% more | £100 per fuel |
These deals are especially relevant because the July cap is predicted to rise well above them. Even a tariff only slightly cheaper than the current cap could save households money over the next 12 months.
Should Households Fix Their Energy Bills Now or Stay on the Price Cap?
For most people, the answer depends on how much risk they are willing to accept. Fixing now offers certainty, while staying on the cap means waiting to see if prices improve.
What Makes Fixing a Good Option?
A fixed tariff could make sense for households that want predictable bills and are worried about the July increase.
- The current fixed deals are close to or below the April cap.
- Forecasts suggest the July cap could rise by more than 17%.
- Fixing now protects households if wholesale prices continue rising.
- Families on tight budgets may prefer knowing exactly what they will pay each month.
Martin Lewis has repeatedly stressed that households should look for fixes that are only a couple of per cent above the current cap. Anything much higher may not be worth it.
An MSE spokesperson said: “If the current situation lasts a long time, grabbing the cheapest fix you can may well work out to be best and give you peace of mind.”
When Staying on the Cap May Still Be Better?
Staying on the current price cap may still suit some households, particularly if they believe wholesale prices will fall again.
- The current cap is guaranteed until the end of June.
- If international tensions ease, cheaper fixed deals may return.
- Households with low energy use may not save enough to justify exit fees.
- Variable tariffs can offer more flexibility if prices fall later in the year.
Those who dislike being tied into a contract may prefer to remain on a variable tariff and review the market again in the summer.
A Real Household Example
I came across one household in Manchester that shared their experience after reviewing their energy options. They had been paying around £1,640 a year under the current cap, based on typical usage.
After comparing deals, they decided to fix their tariff with Outfox Energy at about 1.6% below the cap.
As they told me:
“We were paying roughly £1,640 a year, but after switching, our fixed deal is around £1,615. If prices go up in July, we’ve locked in a saving of over £300 and avoided the uncertainty.”
From what they shared, it’s clear that acting early helped them secure a better deal and gain peace of mind before potential price rises.
Which Households Are Most Likely to Benefit from Fixing Before July?
Not every household will gain equally from a fixed tariff. Those likely to benefit most include families with high energy use, larger homes and people who prefer stable monthly bills.
Households with children, older residents or medical equipment often use more energy throughout the year. A sharp rise in the July price cap could therefore hit them harder.
Likewise, anyone already struggling with rising food, mortgage or rent costs may prefer to remove one uncertainty from their budget.
By contrast, lower-use households may save less from fixing, especially if their chosen tariff includes large exit fees.
What Are the Risks of Fixing an Energy Tariff Now?
Fixing an energy tariff can protect you from the expected July price rise, but it comes with risks. The main concern is that wholesale prices could fall later in the year.
If that happens, the Ofgem price cap may drop, leaving households on fixed deals paying more than those on variable tariffs.
Longer contracts (15–24 months) carry more uncertainty, as future prices are hard to predict. Exit fees are another drawback, often costing up to £200 for dual-fuel households if you switch early.
Before switching, consider:
- Tariff length
- Exit fees
- Rate vs current cap
A shorter fix with low fees often offers the best balance of security and flexibility.
Are There Alternatives to Fixed Tariffs That Could Still Save Money?
Some households may not want to fix but still wish to reduce their bills. There are now several alternatives that can work better depending on energy use and risk appetite.
Discounted Price Cap Tariffs
These tariffs follow the Ofgem price cap but give households a small discount on unit rates or standing charges.
- E.on Next Pledge offers around £100 off average unit rates.
- British Gas Cap Tracker gives lower standing charges.
- EDF Simply Tracker is often more suitable for lower users.
Because these tariffs still move with the price cap, households remain exposed to future increases, although they should always pay slightly less than the cap itself.
Tracker and Smart Tariffs
Tracker tariffs change every day according to wholesale energy prices. They can be cheaper when markets are calm but become more expensive during periods of uncertainty.
- Octopus Tracker changes daily.
- Agile Octopus changes every 30 minutes.
- E.on Next Smart Saver offers cheaper overnight rates.
These tariffs are generally better for households with smart meters, electric vehicles or flexible energy use.
Cheaper Variable Tariffs
A handful of suppliers currently offer variable tariffs below the official price cap.
- Home Energy’s Fair Variable tariff is around 8% cheaper than the cap.
- Flexible Octopus is slightly cheaper because it discounts standing charges.
These deals can offer savings without locking customers into a contract, although suppliers may change the rates more quickly.
What Should Readers Do Now to Protect Themselves from Higher Bills?
The next few weeks are likely to be crucial. Fixed deals can disappear quickly, especially if wholesale markets rise again.
Steps to Take Before July
- Compare fixed and variable tariffs using a reputable comparison service.
- Check any exit fees before switching.
- Avoid fixing for longer than 12 to 15 months unless the deal is especially competitive.
- Review energy use and whether a tracker or discounted tariff might suit the household better.
- Take meter readings before any tariff change.
If Bills Are Already Unaffordable
Households struggling with costs should contact their supplier immediately. Most energy firms now offer payment plans, hardship support or access to emergency grants.
Ofgem also advises customers to check whether they qualify for:
- The Warm Home Discount
- Winter Fuel Payments
- Priority Services Register support
- Local council hardship funds
Small changes can also make a difference. British Gas recently advised households to use shorter appliance cycles, switch electronics off at the mains and move some energy use to off-peak periods where possible.
Conclusion
The latest martin lewis energy bills update does not mean every household should rush into a fixed tariff. However, it does suggest that this may be one of the few opportunities to lock in a deal before the predicted July rise.
For households wanting certainty, especially those with average or high energy use, fixing now could provide useful protection against rising costs.
Those who are comfortable taking more risk may decide to remain on the price cap and wait to see how wholesale markets develop.
The key message is simple: compare tariffs now rather than waiting until July, when the cheapest deals may no longer be available.
FAQs About
Is Martin Lewis telling everyone to fix their energy bills now?
No. Martin Lewis says households should compare deals and decide based on their own risk appetite and budget.
Will the July energy price rise affect all households?
No. It mainly affects customers on standard variable tariffs or anyone whose fixed tariff ends before July.
Are fixed tariffs always cheaper than the Ofgem price cap?
No. Normally they are more expensive, but a small number are currently below or close to the April cap.
How quickly can energy deals disappear?
Very quickly. Suppliers often withdraw or reprice deals within days when wholesale costs change.
What should people check before switching supplier?
They should check unit rates, standing charges, exit fees and the length of the contract.
Can households leave a fixed tariff early?
Yes, but most suppliers charge an exit fee, usually between £50 and £100 per fuel.
Is a tracker tariff safer than a fixed deal right now?
Usually not. Tracker tariffs can become more expensive very quickly when wholesale prices rise.
